terms of interest	Random Sampling	conservative
Political socialization	Exit poll	push polling
Public opinion	liberty	selection bias
Political opinion	equality of opportunity	margin of error
Political opinion polling	democracy	methodology
Scientific polling	liberal	Political culture

Methodology (How do we know what we know?).

Key Concepts from the Text
- Americans' opinions are shaped by fundemental values and demographics background. - Family, social groups, education and political conditions all transmit political values and information. - The ability of public opinion to influence government decisisons depends on specific conditions and events.

You should think about going to graduate school.

When you get your BA (or BS) degree you will enter a workforce where about 25% have such a degree...But for two more years of education you can get a Masters and enter the workforce among only 9% who have such advanced degrees...

YOU should go to graduate school - at least keep the possibility open - if you can do undergrad all the way to a BA - you can go a couple extra years and get an MA, MBA, MS etc. The life long payoff is greater for people with masters degrees and above.

In graduate school you really don't argue about conclusions - you argue about how they got there. All those types of issues are called: "methodology." Methodology is  a fancy word for the methods used to generate the data, view the data, and analyze the data. Remember, Political Science wants to be scientific, that means we have to focus on verifiable reality.  That really means "quantifiable reality" or things that can be measured and expressed in numbers.

You are who you are by age five (or so we are told).

Most of our socialization takes place in the first five years of our lives and we remain who we are throughout our lives. Political socialization is one minor aspect of overall socialization and it occurs through out our life.  The three most important variables in your life - where and when you were born and to whom you were born.  Can you over come your bad luck - of course you can - do most people? Sadly, no.  These three variables have the largest of impact on your life and they are all outside of your control.  Such is life.

Political Science deals with demographic data.

We have a tremendous amount of data on our population . For over fifty years we have been collecting data on people's opinions, as well as a host of demographic data ("Demographic data" puts people into categories.) Political scientists know a great deal about the American public. But so do advertising firms and corporations.

We can tell a great deal about people by what demographic category they fit into.  Not just gender, race, age, income but rather specific questions, taken together can paint a demographic picture of your and me.  Do you rent or own?  How old is your car and is it paid off?  How much money do you (and your family) spend on food OUTSIDE of the house compared to food prepared and eaten inside the home?  How often do you go the the movies, rent videos, go on vacation, fly, rent a car, etc.?

The data collected from these and many other issues can be used to test theories or explanations for practically everything.  They can be used to construct models of understanding for everything from marketing plans to political policies.

Your book is correct to point out that "random sampling" is the key to scientific polling. 

Also important is the sample size and that it is representative of the population you are trying to understand.  If I wanted to find out the opinions of college students. I could randomly select students on a corner on campus.  That's not random.  How about a phone book?  Does everyone have a number and only one number? Truly random sampling is harder to get than you might think and involves computers.

And your sample has to look like the population you are studying.  I could ask all the 18 year olds on campus but that would not be representative of the whole student population, is it?  This is random sampling with control(s).

Everyone can use polls and polling data to support or refute their arguments.  But statistics do not prove anything.  Statistics simply demonstrate correlations or show possible connections.  They cannot prove anything.

So here are a few tests you can apply to any poll you read about.

(1) Did they share the question with you? If not, there may be problems in the wording of the question. Asking: "Do you support Clinton?" isn't exactly the same as asking: "Do you support the President of the United States of America?" Leading questions have no place in social science research. Not because they are "manipulative or "bad," but because they muck up the validity of the results.

(2) Did they provide information on sample size, margin of error or any other details? If not, it's probably because they have not followed a standard methodology. (e.g.; By convention (that means general agreement)) most statisticians say 800-1000 responses are needed for accurate calculations. If the responses are split 50/50, maybe the question is ambiguous. If more than 25% respond "don't know," or "undecided," maybe the question is vague.)

(3) Who sponsored the report? While you can't always figure this out and not all science is "for sale," one can question the methodology of a research effort funded by the Tobacco companies that "discovers" healthy benefits of smoking. Or if Vons keeps "coming up the lowest" it's no surprise the methodology has been compromised.

Your Text gives a great list of questions you should ask about any poll. And if the answers are not provided, that tells a great deal about the pollster (the people doing the poll).

1. Who is behind the poll?

2. Who participated in the poll?

3. Is there a margin of error associated with the poll? Is it between around 5 per cent and two percent?

4. What was the question asked of the respondents? Is the wording of the question ambiguous or suspicious?

5. Could this poll be considered a pseudo-poll (non scientifically done) or a push poll?

 

some things to think about (Remember - half of the final exam questions come from these "some things to think about" questions) You should be able to discuss each of these.

1. What effect has college had on your political attitudes? Why does it have the effect? Are college faculty effective at indoctrinating students, either consciously or unconsciously? Why or Why not? 2. What is your opinion on same sex marriages? What is the basis for your opinion: legal, social, or religious beliefs, other? Has your opinion changed in any way over the last few years or so? If so, how and why? 3. Does political advertising manipulate public opinion about issues and candidates? Is this any different from advertising a consumer product? If political attitudes are the results of manipulation, does this make a mockery of free elections? If citizens' preferences are not freely chosen, what does this mean for democracy? 4. Describe the difference between liberal and conservative ideologies in American politics. Using one social or demographic group as an example, describe some of the factors that may have shaped the ideological orientation of that particular group.